Sir Francis Galton
Hebner Model (www.hebnermodel.com) explains why prices change. they change to compensate for Uncertainty of the Economy and for approximate maintenance of Expected Return of an investment.
The Hebner Model (see hebnermodel.com)
The distribution of errors of estimating the Expected Return of an investment (Index Portfolio 50 in this case).
The steel frame of Sir Francis, before the powder coating.
The testing of the bell curve.
Source: A Computer Prospective, Ray and Charles Eames, 1973, Harvard Univ. Press
NPG 3916, Sir Francis Galton
Sir Francis Galton (1822-1911)
Index Portfolio 60 - 780 months from 1941 to 2005
Overlay the distribution of simulated monthly returns on the probability machine.
Let the beads fall where they will. From the randomness of beads hitting pins, the order of the bell shaped curve shall reveal itself. Will it look like the market?
In the middle of the falling beads.
Behold the beauty and similarity to market returns.
Lady Luck or The Goddess Fortuna. She's the only one who knows in which column the next bead will land.
The base unit. Designed to match the reception counter and Risk Capacity kiosk in the lobby of IFA, Irvine.
Waiting for Sir Francis
Easy does it!
Watch out for your toes!
Feeding Sir Francis. He loves those beads.
IMG_5718 copy
The original Sir Francis Galton Board built in 1873.
The distribution of 600 monthly returns for Index Portfolio 90.
The orderly result of chaos.
Francis, named after Sir Francis Galton, who invented the Probability Machine in 1873.
Dressed up for the Holidays - 2009
The father of Sir Francis. Created in 1970 at the Oregon Museum of Science and Industry (OMSI).
A histogram of 600 monthly returns of Index Portfolio 100 is closely replicated by randomly dropping beads.
The 1964 World's Fair IBM Exhibit
1964 World's Fair - IBM Exhibit - Designed by Ray and Charles Eames
Beads hitting the first pins.
The quincunx pattern. The quincunx was originally a coin issued by the Roman Republic c.211-200 BC, whose value was five twelfths (quinque + uncia) of an As, the Roman standard bronze coin.
Another version of the Eames 1961 Mathematica Exhibit was made for the IBM Exhibit at the 1964/1965 New York World's Fair. Subsequently it was briefly on display in New York City, and then installed in the Pacific Science Center in Seattle where it stayed till 1980; then it was moved to SciTrek, the Science and Technology Museum of Atlanta.
Little girl smiling as she looks at the beads randomly bouncing around.
The 14 ft. Probability Machine. Circa 1964. by Charles and Ray Eames
The arrival of Murphy. July 7, 2009. Murphy was built in 1981 at Princeton University Physics Department.
The Random Mechanical Cascade (RMC) in action in the PEAR (note collection of pears on the table) laboratory at Princeton University. Courtesy the PEAR Archives.
From the laboratory notebooks that document each experimental run of the RMC; hand-written data includes pre-recorded operator intention, local temperature and humidity, final tallies, etc. Courtesy the PEAR Archives.
Murphy is 11 ft tall. Feeding it beads.
IMG_5915
Murphy (as in the Law). Behold it's beauty.
The counting system on Murphy. This is currently not working correctly.
The Normal Distribution
600 monthly returns of a simulated NASDAQ
IMG_5917
Charles, in honor of Charles Eames.
Mathematica Exhibit at the California Science Center, Los Angeles, CA. Designed by Charles and Ray Eames.
Probability machine from the Mathematica Exhibit, created by Charles and Ray Eames. In March, 1961 a new science wing at the California Museum of Science and Industry[1] in Los Angeles opened. IBM had been asked by the Museum to make a contribution; IBM in turn asked the famous California designer team of Charles Eames and his wife Ray Eames to come up with a good proposal. The result was that the Eames Office was commissioned by IBM to design an interactive exhibition called Mathematica: a world of numbers...and beyond.[2] This was the first of many exhibitions designed by the Eames Office. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematica:_A_World_of_Numbers..._and_Beyond#A_View_of_the_Mathematica_Exhibition
This probability machine was created by Charles Eames for the Mathematica exhibit at the California Science and Museum in Los Angeles, CA. This machine is being repaired and is owned by Eames Office. We believe there are only 3 of these machines.
The first is probability machine created by Sir Francis Galton in 1873.
A Lego Probability Machine.
Another Galton Board, contributed by Brenda Dunne.
A blindfolded monkey...
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The Monolith in the opening scene of 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)
Probability Monolith
